Regional Predictions for Holyrood 2016 as at August 2015

Original post 13/10/15.  Editted 14/10/14 using August and September data combined.
Editted again 13/11/15 - H&I have 8 constituency MSPs and NE 10. 

Now in my previous posts, I have argued that its important that we vote accordance to our beliefs in policies - see Vote for what you believe in - and also that with the SNP riding high and likely to do a clean sweep Constituency seats there is an opportunity to 'game ' the List vote to minimise the unionist and conservative (small C) old parties.

Some people get very excited about this: I dont think we are going to get mass switching of list votes from SNP in the List as return for Greens voting SNP in the constituencies.  But that's life.  But if we look at the detail, we see that small shifts can deny unionist seats with no risk to SNP List seats in four of the eight regions (You can't risk a seat you aren't going to get!).

But those predictions made so far look at the national picture and what we have is a Regional series of situations.  I've always said we need to look at the detail.  

The problem is that the data on such isn't very robust.  When a poll of 1029 people is split into the 8 regions, there aren't many people asked in each region.  A rule of thumb is that a poll of 1000 will be accurate +-3% - better for big parties and much worse for small parties.  Once the sample gets split between 8 regions the figures are much less reliable.  However having done that health warning, let's have a look at the regional situation - but I'm tempted to say 'Just a bit of fun - these are just predictions'.The data used can be found at http://www2.tnsglobal.com/l/36112/2015-08-07/7wshq7/36112/114148/TNS___Holyrood_Voting_Intention_Poll___10_August_2015.pdf and http://www2.tnsglobal.com/l/36112/2015-10-07/9tbc5m/36112/124920/TNS___Holyrood_Voting_Intention_Poll___8_October_2015.pdf


The sample sizes are very small but the overall results seem to be fairly stable: there isn't a great trend showing.   So what I am going to do is add the actual numbers sampled between the two months together to get a more reliance number.  It is still a small sample and all results must therefore be treated with caution. 

 Constituency predictions

The SNP vote is holding up very well in the constituencies - very much in line with the General Election results.  Of the 73 constituency seats, the SNP are predicted to win 71. 

Overall result

Now the model for allocating the regional seats I will use can be found at http://www.dhondt.eu/php/

For each region, we need to know the number of seats for each party and the regional list vote.  Plugging in these two sets of figures gives us the numbers of additional member seats allocated. 

But we have a problem.  ScotlandVotes doesn't tell us which two constituency seats are not won by the SNP.   Well, I'm going to assume that the LibDems hang onto one seat in the Highlands (let's not get into which one!) and that the Tories hang onto a seat in the South of Scotland.  I hope the SNP do better than this but let's go with the prediction and my assumption. 

Highlands and Islands

There is an extra constituency seat in Highland and Islands as Orkney and Shetland each have a constituency MSP.  And I am going to assume that the LibDems hang onto a seat in this, their traditional last redoubt in Scotland.  

Tiny sample warning! Number of Additional seat for SNP = zero - the level of support for the SNP in the Highlands simply isnt high enough to give a Regional Seat.    With 9 UKIP supporters found in the September sample,, they get allocated a seat.   You all know what to do. 

In practice with the well known and well respected John Finnie topping the Highland list, I'm pretty confident that the Greens will have enough votes to have a Highland Regional List seat.  The question is whether the Tory and UKIP voices can be overcome to quash UKIP.  

North East

Tiny sample warning! This is an SNP stronghold with in addition to the 10 constituency seats, the SNP predicted to win 2 List seats.   It's very much up to Greens to improve their own performance to win a List seat here at at present they are not close.  

Mid Scotland and Fife

Mid Scotland and Fife

Tiny sample warning! Again a strong performance by the SNP means that theygain a Regional List seat after the LibDems.  Greens need to target suurplus LibDem votes to deny Tories the last seat.  

Lothians

Lothians

Tiny sample warning! The SNP don't pick up any List seats and the Greens pick up two. A better than expected performance by Labour or Tory would put that at risk.   Greens should be appealling to SNP voters to help them.  

Central

Central

Tiny sample warning! A strong performance from the SNP means they pick up a List seat as do the Greens. It would take a lot for either to be able to deny the Tories the last seat. 

Glasgow

Glasgow

Tiny sample warning!  Labour pick up lots of List seats, the SNP none and the Greens one.  Greens would need an extra 4% on their vote to gain a second seat to the detriment of Labour.  So Glasgow is a place where SNP supporters could switch to Green to reduce the unionist seats.   I think that is more likely than Greens switching to SNP and risking their one list seat - the SNP have nothing to lose by switching.

It's embarassing having UKIP showing on the poll and 4% for Tories is VERY low.  

West

West of Scotland

A strong showing by the SNP means they pick up two list seats.  The Greens fails to achieve one.  Each must present their own cases to reduce the unionist parties further.

South

South of Scotland

Here I assume a Tory hangs onto a constituency seat.  I know.  Miserable, isn't it?

The SNP pick up one Regional List seats and the Greens gain one.   The Greens should be targetting the LibDems to try to deny Labour a seat.  

Summary and Conclusions

In three regions, the SNP are highly unlikely to gain any List seats but they have a good chance in the other five.  Where Greens are strong: Highland and Islands; Lothians; and Glasgow, small switches of SNP votes to Green could dent unionist voices.   

Worth doing? - well SNP supporters in these three regions need to ask themselves if they want an extra unionist or an extra Green.  

Scare stories re voter registration

I’m going to start this post with a few very definitive statements for the benefit of people who won’t read further.

Letter from my local ERO
confirming that my partner
and I are both registered.

• If you were on the electoral register for the IndyRef, you will NOT be removed from the register until December 2015
• Under the new system of individual registration, many people will be asked for extra information, usually a NI number.  This is not an identity fraud scam.
• You cannot check whether you are registered or not online.  You have the right to have your name not published for commercial purposes and if there was an online facility to check, then this would get quickly broken by a robot.  

 Lots of the Electoral Registration Officers (EROs) are very aware of the unfounded concern about people not being registered and are sending out letters to each household advising who are registered.  This is very helpful of them.  

Please read these letters carefully. 
If everyone is registered, then great.  
If someone has been missed off, then do register them.

What has happened?

This cat is under 18 and
not entitled to vote

Last June, in England, the system of household registration for the electoral register changed to individual registration and the system was tightened up to ensure than only real people are registered (at the height of the poll tax protests, I registered my cat to vote).

The introduction of individual registration was delayed until after the IndyRef in Scotland so avoid any issues.  It was agreed in Scotland that the register used for the IndyRef would be used (with monthly updates) until December 2015. 

Some people who don’t match up with other information (e.g. if your name on the electoral register isn’t an exact match with the name on your NI record), will be asked for extra information.  If that information isn’t provided – and you should be asked at least twice – your name will be deleted from the register in December 2015 which may mean you can’t vote in the Holyrood elections in 2016.  

The rumours

The www.gov.uk site where you can apply to register to vote, isn’t linked to the local electoral register, so if people put their details in there, it gives a message that people aren’t registered.  What they mean is that the application will be passed to the local ERO who will proceed with the registration.  It’s not a helpful message and some people have got the wrong end of the stick and think it means they weren’t registered or their registration has been deleted.  This is not true.  It doesn't know.

The most paranoid think this is a plot to rig the forthcoming General Election.  It’s not: it’s just a misunderstanding of what this 'postbox' system can do.   It simply doesn’t know whether you are registered or not so treats every registration as if you are a new registration. 

You wouldn't expect the parking meter to tell you how much is in your bank account.  This dumb system doesn't know who you are or whether your are already registered.  It just fills in a form and sends it to your local ERO.

What happens if I use www.gov.uk/register-to-vote?

If you register through this site, it will be treated by your local ERO as a re-registration – and any duplicate existing record will be deleted.  Hopefully the new registration will be fine, but if there is something wrong, then you might not be on the register.

The safest thing to do is simply do nothing if you were registered for the IndyRef.

I'm worried anyway.  How can I check I am registered?

If you don’t get a letter in the next few weeks and are worried, then do contact your local ERO.  If you type your postcode in here, you will find their phone and email. 

There is little reason to hurry: the deadline for new registrations for May's General Election is Monday 20th April.  But it would be kind to people who need to register because they have moved or are registering for the first time to have priority so if you are worried, then ask sooner rather than later. 

More detail on the individual registration system is here  and how it is planned to be implemented in Scotland is available here. 

How popular are Green policies?

Since the middle of last year, the Green parties have been growing with an explosion of members aroudn the time of the IndyRef in Scotland.  And still they come. 

We've always known that, at least amongst people who like that kind of thing, 'blind shopping' of Green policies against other parties has produced very favorable results.    But until now, the Scottish Greens have been lumped in with our sister party in England and Wales (OK - but we are different) and the SNP shamefully hasn't tended to be included at all.

www.votematch.org/ agreed to include Scottish Greens for their new version due to go live in March.  Fantastic. We are really looking forward to the launch.  The process of being included was made very easy.

Vote for Policies 2010 for Gordon

But www.voteforpolicies.org.uk, after first being keen to include us, then decided that as we didn't have an MP or MEP in Scotland, we wouldn't qualify.  Rachel Waugh and I made a bit of a fuss on Facebook and lots of others joined in by email and on twitter - and within hours, a decision that look immoveable through January and most of February, was reversed : they did #invitethegreens.

Thank you. 
 

Vote for Policies  21st Feb 2015

Grand.

But how would we Greens fare now?

Well, not bad. See that nice big patch of Green.  That's us.  It's a small sample so far - but very promising.

It's difficult to compare the others as VoteforPolicies 2010 didn't include the SNP. But if I were UKIP or the Tories, I'd be worried: the purple and blue areas are shrinking.

No analysis of the situation across Scotland is yet available (I've asked) but on the UK scale, the picture is very interesting indeed.

There is the Green Party of England and Wales, sitting at the top of the leaderboard on 26.5% of the UK national vote - and with the Scottish Greens 3.2%, the Green total is 29.7%.  WOW!

On a UK national basis - and therefore a Scottish basis as neither party stands candidates outside Scotland - the Scottish Greens, narrowly defeat the mighty SNP.  WOW!

So we have a serious challenge on our hands.

We have to convert that good will towards our policies into a belief that those policies can be implemented and that it is worth voting Green to get them implemented.

See you on the doorstep. 
We've work to do.
We've seats to win.

It might take a while but we will win.  And so will the country.  

National disgrace, scoundrel and extremist

The untouched dune system.
The mobile sand sheet moved 5-15m north each year, leaving behind a time series of botanical
colonisation, one of the finest examples of such in northern Europe.

I'm often asked why this blogs normal title is National disgrace, scoundrel and extremist.  This phrase evokes to me a significant change in my political life.  And explaining that might also explain how money-politics works. 

In 2005, I was approached by representatives of Trump who wanted to outline to me, as local councillor, their plan to turn the shooting estate of Menie into a golf resort.  What they outlined was a 250 bedroom hotel, a golf course, maybe some staff accommodation and perhaps some other housing.  At this stage, it was clear that they'd been in discussions with the council planners and up to Chief Executive level for some time.

In March 2006, they went public with an announcement that they were in May going to submit an application for a 250 bedroom hotel, two golf courses and a holiday home complex, valued at £300 million, creating 400 jobs and in piled the local business interest saying this would put the north-east of Scotland on the map with Shiona Baird, Green MSP being the only cautionary voice.   

By the summer, the resort has grown to a £1 billion investment with a 450 bedroomn hotel and a thousand holiday homes.  Even more ra-ra from local business interests - obviously £1 billion is three times better than £300m - and there couldn't possibly be any downsides - could there?.

The resort proposal

When finally submitted in November 2006, the resort consisted of a 450 bedroom hotel, 950 holiday apartments, 36 golf villas and a village of 900 open market houses.

Now as councillor, you are stuck with making no comment on planning applications, as you could be deemed to prejudge the application.  So silence from me and meanwhile an enormous PR effort.

In the summer of 2007, I was lobbied by both local MP, Malcolm Bruce to the effect of 'You must pass the Trump thing, else the SNP will get the credit' and in favour of Trump by the then local MSP Nora Radcliffe. It was clear that the Trump PR machine was working at all political levels.  The Scottish Government has already added Trump to Global Scots - a group meant to promote Scotland's interests abroad.   MPs and MSPs had been intensively lobbied.  So had many -but not all - councillors.  And the business and tourist community had been fully briefed and were raising their voice loudly in support. 

Trump 'sensitively' resculpting the sand
dunes to make his golf course.

The problem with the application was simple: it trashed - literally bulldozed - a site of scientic interest in order to build a hotel and holiday complex.  And it built 900 houses on farmland where no village had been planned into order to pay for it.  Talk of £1 billion pound investment was fantasy - it was the sale of open market housing paying for the development.  Lots of environmental damage.  A thousand, mainly low pay,  jobs - in a area where unemployment was less than 1%, house prices are high and there is a shortage of affordable housing.  None would be included in the 'exclusive' Menie estate development.

In October 2007 there was a planning hearing lasting some 5 hours and in November, there were two meetings, first of the local Area Committee which approved the development and then famous Infrastructure Services Committee where Martin Ford used his casting vote to turn down Trump rather than sending the applicaion back for renegotiation - few councillors wanted to grant outright. 

And that was when all hell let lose.

The leader of the Council vowed 'I will do everything in my power to keep this application alive'.  The media went in to frenzy mode.  Martin took the brunt but I answered the phone to media and did countless interviews that day.   At 8am the following morning, I was scheduled to do a live interview with Radio Scotland.  A woman appeared on my doorstep shortly before this and, shouting obsenities at me, tried to assult me on my own doorstep.  I was too shaken to do the interview.   It was awful.  Thousands of emails.  Front page of the local newspaper with Traitor as the headline.  

By the end of the following week, Martin was no longer the chair of the Infrastructure Services Committee, the application had been called in by the Scottish Government - an unprecendented step for an application that had already been properly determined - and there was a deep rift in the LibDems on Aberdeenshire between those that opposed Trump and those that supported him.

Aberdeenshire Council agreed to permit a 5m tall bund
to built around the Leyton Cottage on the Menie estate

I battled on, doing my job as councillor, especially to protect the rights of the Menie residents not be be harrassed and hemmed in and to maintain open public access to the Menie Estate (see here and here).

It was at this period when Donald Trump, a bit touchy at my opposition, wrote an open letter to the press (and sent me a copy some 6 hours later) where he called me a national disgrace, scoundrel and extremist.  I am patently none of those things - but I rather like the accolade from this birther and climate change denier.   
 
Eventually the rift in Aberdeenshire Council grew so deep and the behaviour of some councillors was so vile, that I left the LibDems, followed by Martin.  Martin joined the Greens immediately: I didn't join the Greens until October 2009.  I loved the welcome I got.  Linda Hendry, who I'd known for years from when I lived in Edinburgh said 'You've taken your time', which I took as a welcome and an indication that she'd regarded me as a green for a long time.  It was coming home.

What happenned at Menie was simple.  Lots of people, whose job it was to contain a crocodile, didn't do their job.  The zookeepers helped the crocodile rather than keeping it in its enclosure.  Why? Because they were blinded by a slick PR campaign and the idea that a couple of golf courses could replace the oil industry.  Laughable, if it wasn't so sad. 

But out of a very horrible time comes good:  

People know who I am.  I am still recognised and approached by people who tell me that I did right in regard to Trump - including by some who say they thought I was wrong at the time but now understand.

People know what I stand for.  I spent weeks looking at the evidence.  The 'right' of the matter was very clear to me at the time and I haven't changed my mind.  And I was left as one of the few voices raised to oppose Trump.  People - the Menie residents - and the environment matter.  And the economy, while important, must make sense in terms of actual benefit and actual investment not just be a matter of £000000000.

And they know I mean it.  Trump doesn't cope with No very well - he doesn't often meet it.  He tried every trick to intimidate me.  It wasn't pleasant but it didn't work. I survived and can smile about it now.  It's good to know that when presented with a choice, I did what was right not what was easy. 

Local - Experienced - Proven

The fallout thereafter at Menie is documented on this blog (Earlier material was lost as I blogged on the LibDem's own platform).  Click on Menie or Trump in the Cloud to the right to read more.  And if you want a fuller, less personal picture, then there are excellent papers by Martin Ford and Andy Wightman.

Tripping Up Trump continue to support the Menie residents.

Trump continues to harrass the residents.  Please support them on the Tripping Up Trump Facebook page.  While a golf course is built and Menie House and the adjacent steadings have been converted to holiday accommodation, the club house is about a third of the original size.   The Menie development hasn't been a success and Trump is now stamping his mark on classic Turnberry and Doonbeg in Ireland.